Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
